polydatapolydata

Politics

Macron out by...?

0%
ended
Macron out in 2025?
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

China x India military clash by...?

0%
ended
China x India military clash by December 31?
China x India military clash by June 30?
LIVE
$240K Vol.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

0%
ended
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$285K Vol.

Starmer out by...?

0%
ended
Starmer out in 2025?
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$29M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

0%
ended
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$3M Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

0%
ended
Ukraine election called in 2025?
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

0%
ended
Will any country leave NATO in 2025?
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$1M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

0%
ended
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

0%
ended
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31?
LIVE
$102K Vol.

What will happen before GTA VI?

100%
ended
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
LIVE
$22M Vol.

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

0%
ended
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
LIVE
$6M Vol.

Spain snap election called by...?

0%
ended
Spain snap election called in 2025?
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$161K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

0%
ended
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$5M Vol.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?

0%
ended
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
LIVE
$108K Vol.

US recognize Somaliland by...?

0%
ended
US recognize Somaliland in 2025?
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?
LIVE
$12K Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

1%
chance
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
LIVE
$1159M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

1%
chance
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Person BG win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
LIVE
$599M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

3%
chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Person AN win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
LIVE
$637M Vol.

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

50%
chance
Will Person K win the 2026 Republican Primary?
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
$17M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

48%
chance
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

50%
chance
Will another party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
$7M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

46%
chance
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
LIVE
$7M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

14%
chance
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
LIVE
$937K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

50%
chance
Will Party K win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Party L win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
$2M Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

0%
ended
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

0%
ended
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
LIVE
$439K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

44%
chance
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Netanyahu out by March 31?
LIVE
$121M Vol.

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

0%
ended
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
LIVE
$6M Vol.

Colombia Presidential Election

0%
ended
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
LIVE
$30M Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

0%
ended
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
LIVE
$2M Vol.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

0%
ended
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?
LIVE
$594K Vol.

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

0%
ended
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?
LIVE
$8M Vol.

French election called by...?

0%
ended
French election called by December 31?
French election called by September 15?
LIVE
$1M Vol.

Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

0%
ended
Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31?
Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?
LIVE
$1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

0%
ended
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
LIVE
$14M Vol.

Who will Bernie endorse?

30%
chance
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?
LIVE
$164K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse?

100%
ended
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Will Trump endorse Winsome Earle-Sears for VA-Gov by Nov 2 2025 ET?
LIVE
$217K Vol.

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

25%
chance
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
LIVE
$582K Vol.

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

99%
chance
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
LIVE
$3M Vol.

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

96%
chance
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
LIVE
$151K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

0%
ended
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
LIVE
$86M Vol.

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

4%
chance
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
LIVE
$345K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

1%
chance
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?
LIVE
$8M Vol.

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

0%
ended
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by October 31?
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?
LIVE
$560K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

0%
ended
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
LIVE
$3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

0%
ended
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
LIVE
$25M Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

71%
chance
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
LIVE
$3M Vol.

Arizona Governor Election Winner

76%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$43K Vol.

Alabama Governor Election Winner

91%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Alabama governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$5K Vol.

Arkansas Governor Election Winner

5%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
Will Option C win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$7K Vol.

Colorado Governor Election Winner

8%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Colorado governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Colorado governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$12K Vol.

Connecticut Governor Election Winner

7%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$4K Vol.

Florida Governor Election Winner

81%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Florida governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$19K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

47%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$38K Vol.

Hawaii Governor Election Winner

25%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$7K Vol.

Idaho Governor Election Winner

95%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Idaho governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$7K Vol.

Illinois Governor Election Winner

93%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
Will Option C win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$5K Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

68%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$36K Vol.

Kansas Governor Election Winner

59%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$7K Vol.

Maine Governor Election Winner

50%
chance
Will Option A win the Maine governor race in 2026?
Will Option E win the Maine governor race in 2026?
$9K Vol.

Maryland Governor Election Winner

6%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$16K Vol.

Massachusetts Governor Election Winner

5%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
Will Option D win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$31K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

83%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$183K Vol.

Minnesota Governor Election Winner

92%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$58K Vol.

Nebraska Governor Election Winner

50%
chance
Will Option A win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
Will Option E win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
$8K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

54%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$23K Vol.

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner

30%
chance
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$9K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

50%
chance
Will Option B win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
Will Option F win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
$21K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

87%
chance
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the New York governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$76K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

50%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$95K Vol.

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner

92%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$18K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Winner

14%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Will Option D win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$17K Vol.

Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner

92%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$18K Vol.

Rhode Island Governor Election Winner

87%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
Will Option C win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$56K Vol.

South Carolina Governor Election Winner

93%
chance
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$11K Vol.

South Dakota Governor Election Winner

84%
chance
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$14K Vol.

Tennessee Governor Election Winner

25%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$4K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

50%
chance
Will Option E win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will Option G win the Texas governor race in 2026?
$12K Vol.

Vermont Governor Election Winner

81%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$21K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

25%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Will Option B win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$70K Vol.

Wyoming Governor Election Winner

5%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?
Will Option A win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?
LIVE
$6K Vol.

Alabama Senate Election Winner

6%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
Will Person A win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$10K Vol.

Arkansas Senate Election Winner

3%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Will Person A win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$11K Vol.

Colorado Senate Election Winner

9%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
Will Person B win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$35K Vol.

Delaware Senate Election Winner

50%
chance
Will Person A win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
Will Person E win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
$12K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

15%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Will Person D win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$26K Vol.

Idaho Senate Election Winner

93%
chance
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
Will Person B win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$16K Vol.

Illinois Senate Election Winner

95%
chance
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
Will Person A win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
LIVE
$25K Vol.