Tech
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
0%
endedWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
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$254K Vol.
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
14%
chanceSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
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$937K Vol.
GPT-6 released by…?
0%
endedWill GPT-6 be released by December 31?
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
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$314K Vol.
Claude 5 released by…?
0%
endedWill Claude 5 be released by December 31?
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
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$4M Vol.
Grok 5 released by...?
0%
endedGrok 5 released by December 31?
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
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$158K Vol.
Who will acquire TikTok?
1%
chanceWill AppLovin acquire TikTok?
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
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$1M Vol.
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
2%
chanceWill OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
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$2M Vol.
Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap
0%
endedWill Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day?
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$405K Vol.
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
1%
chanceWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
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$901K Vol.
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
0%
endedWill Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?
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$1M Vol.
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
1%
chanceWill Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
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$97K Vol.
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
15%
chanceWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
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$1M Vol.
Which company has best AI model end of June?
20%
chanceWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
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$7M Vol.Which company has second best AI model end of June?
76%
chanceWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
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$408K Vol.
Largest Company end of June?
91%
chanceWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
LIVE
$15M Vol.
OpenAI IPO by...?
0%
endedWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025?
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
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$2M Vol.
Sam Altman in jail by...?
0%
endedSam Altman in jail by December 31?
Sam Altman in jail by June 30?
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$44K Vol.
Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?
3%
chanceWill Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?
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$238K Vol.
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
6%
chanceWill Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
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$168K Vol.Largest Company end of December 2026?
1%
chanceWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
LIVE
$3M Vol.
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
5%
chanceSundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
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$694K Vol.
AI bubble burst by...?
0%
endedAI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?
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$3M Vol.
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
5%
chanceWill OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027?
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$192K Vol.
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
100%
endedWill iRobot be acquired before 2027?
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
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$18M Vol.
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
0%
endedWill SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
LIVE
$4M Vol.
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
0%
endedWill Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition?
Will Company A close Warner Bros acquisition?
LIVE
$1M Vol.
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
98%
chanceSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
LIVE
$3M Vol.
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
0%
endedWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?
LIVE
$7M Vol.
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
0%
endedMeta "Mango" model released by March 31?
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
LIVE
$26K Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
8%
chanceWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
LIVE
$2M Vol.
VEO 4 released by...?
0%
endedVEO 4 released by January 31, 2026?
VEO 4 released by February 28, 2026?
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$44K Vol.Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
100%
endedWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
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$94K Vol.
Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap
6%
chanceWill Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
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$141K Vol.
Strava IPO Closing Market Cap
19%
chanceWill Strava’s market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?
Will Strava’s market cap be between $5B and $7B at market close on IPO day?
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$86K Vol.
Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
71%
chanceLedger IPO closing market cap above $1B?
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $2B?
LIVE
$19K Vol.SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
5%
chanceWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
LIVE
$1M Vol.
Google Gemini score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
94%
chanceWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
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$140K Vol.OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
100%
endedWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
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$36K Vol.Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
26%
chanceWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
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$313K Vol.OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
41%
chanceWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
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$24K Vol.
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
100%
endedWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
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$284K Vol.Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
100%
endedWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
LIVE
$64K Vol.
xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
45%
chanceWill any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
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$21K Vol.
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
29%
chanceWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?
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$284K Vol.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
1%
chanceTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
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$292K Vol.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
85%
chanceOpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
LIVE
$1M Vol.
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
50%
chanceWill Placeholder K have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Will Placeholder O have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
$2M Vol.
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
41%
chanceWill the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
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$95K Vol.